25 years of DNA fingerprinting
Thursday, September 10th, 2009Today we celebrate (or morn, depending on your chosen profession) the 25 year birthday of DNA fingerprinting.
It is really an exciting field both from a statistical and genetics point of view.
At our Mols Retreat at BiRC this year we had an inviting talk by Bo Thisted Simonsen, Deputy Director of Forensic Genetics here in Denmark – one of the most interesting invited talks we have had ever – and later this year David Balding will give a seminar here on the same topic, which I look very much forward to.
We have a national DNA database here in Denmark for crime related samples. Anyone arrested for a crime that could lead to prison for 18 months or more can be put in that database, and the hit rate there is about one third, meaning that one third of the samples they send in hits a known criminal or one or more crime scenes, so it is an extremely effective tool for crime investigation.
The statistics involved in preventing false positives is really exciting and a perfect introduction to Bayesian statistics. As you can imagine, it is a perfect situation where an informative prior based on previous convictions, other evidence, etc. can be used to judge the likelihood that a hit is random or a true hit.
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